GSBN’s Bertrand Chen sits down with legendary venture capitalist Jerry Neumann, founder of Neu Venture Capital and author of the blog Reaction Wheel. With a career spanning back to 1997, Jerry discusses with Bertrand his recent piece on the Colossus on why AI will not make you rich.
In this episode, Jerry breaks down 50-year old ICT Cycle using Carlotta Perez’s S-curve framework, comparing the current AI hype to the transformative yet low-margin world of shipping containerization, essentially hinting that we are in the last wave of this cycle.
What does this entail?
How will this impact the Big Techs?
He explains his mental model of the current wave of big spending at Big Techs is a sign of playing defense. And he explains why companies who benefit from this AI wave won’t be the model builders – OpenAI, Anthropic and others but “downstream” companies like the next IKEA and Walmart.
Key topics covered:
✅ AI vs. Shipping Containers – Why AI is in the “Deployment” phase and what that means for your investment returns.
✅ The Uncertainty Edge – Why startups need “surprise” to beat incumbents and why AI has too much certainty.
✅ The Future of Work – Why firing employees because of AI is a “red flag” and how to identify the true winners of the AI wave.
🎧 A must-listen for VCs, founders, software engineers, and anyone trying to navigate the economic reality of the Artificial Intelligence revolution.
In this episode, Jerry breaks down 50-year old ICT Cycle using Carlotta Perez’s S-curve framework, comparing the current AI hype to the transformative yet low-margin world of shipping containerization, essentially hinting that we are in the last wave of this cycle.